London, March 2, 2026, 18:35 GMT — Standard session
Brent crude price rises by $4.83, marking a 6.6% increase; WTI follows closely, gaining 6.2% amid growing supply concerns.
Market Surge Analysis
There has been a decline in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and war-risk insurance policies are scheduled to be terminated on March 5.
OPEC+ is indicating a slight rise in output for April, although the coalition cautions that it may pause if market conditions change.
Brent crude surged by $4.83, marking a 6.6% increase to hit $77.70 a barrel by 1835 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose by $4.17, up 6.2%, reaching $71.19, according to data from Investing.com.
Supply Concerns Impact
Traders are focused on the Strait of Hormuz, now regarded as the primary hotspot. Following attacks on several tankers and Iran’s announcement to close the channel to navigation, approximately 150 vessels are currently stranded in and around the strait, according to shipping data. This route, which facilitates about 20% of the globe’s oil supply, has come to a standstill. Starting March 5, marine insurers began withdrawing war-risk coverage for vessels heading to the Gulf—a decision one expert described as a “de facto closure” as concerns about threats escalated. Reuters
Disruptions in supply are no longer confined to crude oil. Qatar has halted its liquefied natural gas production, with QatarEnergy likely to declare force majeure following drone strikes on the Ras Laffan facility. In Saudi Arabia, the large Ras Tanura refinery, which processes 550,000 barrels per day, was shut down as a precaution after a drone attack, according to sources. Torbjorn Soltvedt, the principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, referred to the Ras Tanura incident as “a significant escalation.” Reuters
On March 1, the eight members of OPEC+ who have implemented additional voluntary cuts approved a production increase of 206,000 bpd for April, as announced by the group. This adjustment is not definitive—the rise could be paused or reversed if market conditions suggest it. The same eight nations are scheduled to reconvene on April 5 to finalize output goals for May. OPEC
OPEC+ Output Adjustments
Banks, however, are still hesitant to take action. The next steps hinge entirely on whether the flow through Hormuz remains constrained — and for how long — along with any potential for that constraint to evolve into significant, prolonged supply disruptions. Citi predicts that Brent will hover between $80 and $90 in the upcoming week, but could fall to $70 if conditions stabilize. Goldman Sachs estimates the current “risk premium” for crude at $18 per barrel, added to prices as traders anticipate potential unrest. JPMorgan noted a significant decline in strait exports — dropping to about 4 million bpd, well below the usual 16 million — and warned that any blockage lasting 3 to 4 weeks could push Brent above $100. Reuters
Significant fluctuations have emerged in the market. Brent crude prices jumped by as much as 13%, reaching $82.37 per barrel—levels not observed since January 2025—before retracting. Kenny Zhu, an analyst at Global X, noted the “increased volatility” and the potential for oil and gas shipments to be redirected. Reuters
The market is experiencing fresh concerns following reports from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards about a fuel tanker on fire in the strait, attributed to a dual drone attack. As per the Guards’ statement, the vessel involved is named “Athen Nova,” which appears to reference the Honduras-flagged asphalt tanker Athe Nova, according to Reuters. Reuters
Strait of Hormuz Developments
The surge in oil prices created ripples across the broader market, prompting investors to seek refuge in safer assets as riskier investments faltered. Chris Zaccarelli, the chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, characterized the reaction as “an instinctive response” to lessen risk exposure, while emphasizing that there was no significant panic among investors. Reuters
A U.S. official in Washington indicated that the Trump administration is not currently considering utilizing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, even amid worries about increasing crude prices. However, analysts suggest that it could be revisited if oil prices continue to rise. According to Reuters, the SPR currently holds 415.4 million barrels. Reuters
The primary Brent contract operates on ICE until 23:00 London time, extending liquidity into the late hours. March 5 is approaching, marking the date when certain cancellations of Gulf war-risk insurance will take effect. Traders are closely monitoring any changes—positive or negative—in tanker movements through Hormuz leading up to that date. ice.com