Since joining OPEC in 1967, the UAE has played a crucial role in the organization. However, recent criticisms of fellow Arab states—particularly regarding inadequate support against Iranian threats—have prompted this significant move.

On April 26, the UAE publicly condemned its Gulf Cooperation Council partners for failing to protect its interests. Anwar Gargash, a prominent UAE official, remarked on the historically weak political and military support from these nations.

As a consequence of heightened Iranian threats, Gulf producers have struggled with crude oil exports through the vital Strait of Hormuz—where approximately a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

Since the outbreak of hostilities in Iran, Brent crude prices have surged, reaching $119.50 per barrel—a staggering increase of 3.4%. Donald Trump has seized on these developments, accusing OPEC of manipulating prices to its advantage.

This departure could reshape not only OPEC but also the broader energy market. The UAE’s exit signifies a fracture within the alliance that may embolden other members to reconsider their commitments.

As tensions rise in the region and with oil prices fluctuating, stakeholders must assess how this change will impact future collaborations among Gulf states. The implications for energy security are profound, given that many countries depend heavily on stable oil supply chains.

The next few months will be critical as both OPEC and the UAE navigate this new landscape—challenging existing power dynamics and possibly setting new precedents for energy policy in the region.

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Gas prices have jumped to four-year highs, a significant development driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Following recent attacks by Israel and Iran on key gasfields, Brent crude oil prices initially soared by 8% to reach $116 a barrel before settling at $110. This spike in crude prices has been accompanied by a dramatic increase in European gas prices, with the Dutch wholesale gas price surging 24% to €68 per megawatt hour.

In the UK, gas prices have risen by 23%, reaching 172 pence per therm, marking the highest level since August 2022. The energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie has noted that these attacks on Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) hub have significantly altered the global gas market outlook, indicating a potential long-term impact on energy supplies.

Since the onset of the US-Israeli war on Iran on February 28, crude prices have skyrocketed by 60%. This rapid increase has raised alarms among market analysts and energy experts. Susannah Streeter, a market analyst, expressed concerns, stating, “Fears of a sustained energy shock have resurfaced after the escalation in the Iran war sent oil and gas prices soaring.” Such volatility in the energy sector could have far-reaching implications for economies reliant on stable energy prices.

The situation is further complicated by the damage inflicted on Iranian facilities, which accounted for 17% of QatarEnergy’s LNG export capacity. This disruption is expected to cut off a significant level of LNG supply to the world market, leading to inevitable price increases. As one analyst noted, “The price of gas in the world market will therefore inevitably rise, because that gas can’t be substituted very quickly at all, and maybe not for a very long time.”

In response to the escalating conflict, authorities in Abu Dhabi have taken precautionary measures, shutting down operations at the Habshan gas facility and Bab oilfield due to Iranian attacks. This decision underscores the immediate risks to energy infrastructure in the region and highlights the interconnectedness of global energy markets.

Market reactions have been swift, with notable declines in stock indices, including a 3.4% decrease in Japan’s Nikkei and a 2.4% drop in the FTSE 100. These movements reflect investor anxiety over the potential for prolonged instability in energy supplies and the broader economic ramifications.

As the situation develops, observers are closely monitoring the potential for further escalations in the conflict and their impact on global energy prices. Warnings have resurfaced that oil could reach $150 a barrel, a scenario that would exacerbate the current energy crisis. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the full extent of the damage to energy infrastructure and the long-term implications for gas prices.

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The price of Brent crude oil has recently dropped to $90 after exceeding $100. This shift marks a significant change in the oil market, which is a global benchmark for oil pricing.

Prior Expectations

Before this development, expectations were set on a stable or rising trend in oil prices, particularly influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the conflict in Iran.

Decisive Changes

The decisive moment came with the escalation of conflict in Iran, leading to a substantial cut in its oil output, which has now fallen to a quarter of its previous levels. This situation has resulted in a 3% loss of global oil supply.

Immediate Effects

The immediate effects of these changes have been felt across various sectors. The average price of a litre of petrol at UK forecourts has risen to 137p, increasing nearly 4p since the conflict resumed. Rising oil costs are impacting manufacturing, transport, and food prices, creating a ripple effect on consumer costs.

Expert Perspectives

Experts are weighing in on the situation, with Kathleen Brooks noting, “This is roughly 3% of global oil supply lost in a single event. Shockingly, this is worse than the oil supply situation after Russia attacked Ukraine.” Meanwhile, Chris Wright has suggested that the situation could resolve in weeks rather than months, stating, “You never know exactly the timeframe of this, but, in the worst case, this is a weeks not a months thing.”

The fluctuations in the brent crude oil price highlight the ongoing volatility in the global oil market, driven by geopolitical factors and supply chain disruptions. The longer oil prices remain high, the more likely they will affect consumer costs, underscoring the interconnectedness of global economic factors.

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On March 10, 2026, oil prices fell to approximately $91.70 a barrel after former President Donald Trump suggested that the Iran war could end “very soon.” This statement has led to immediate reactions in the global energy markets.

Prior to Trump’s comments, Brent crude had surged as high as $119.50 a barrel, reflecting the heightened tensions in the region. The fluctuations in oil prices are significant, as about a fifth of global oil and seaborne gas tankers typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for energy supplies.

Context of the Ongoing Conflict

The backdrop to these developments includes the US and Israel launching joint strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026. This military action has escalated the conflict and raised concerns about global energy supplies, particularly after Iran threatened to halt all oil exports if US and Israeli attacks continued.

Trump announced that some sanctions on oil-producing countries would be lifted to stabilize energy prices, stating, “So, we have sanctions on some countries. We’re going to take those sanctions off until this straightens out.” However, the specific countries that will benefit from this relief have not been disclosed.

Market Reactions and Predictions

The FTSE 100 opened higher by about 1.4% in response to Trump’s comments, indicating a degree of optimism in the markets. Nevertheless, analysts warn that crude oil prices could rise to $150 or even $200 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period.

Furthermore, the conflict has led to significant disruptions in global energy markets, with predictions suggesting oil prices could settle at $135 a barrel if the conflict persists for four months. This situation is already being described as a disruption to global energy supplies that is 17 times larger than the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Official Statements and Future Outlook

Trump emphasized that the US had “already won in many ways” in the conflict with Iran, but acknowledged that more needs to be done, stating, “We have won in many ways, but not enough.” His comments reflect a complex and evolving situation that continues to impact global oil prices.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term impact of the conflict on global oil prices. As the situation develops, market participants will be closely monitoring any further statements from US officials and the responses from Iran and its allies.

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Fuel prices in the UK have reached notable levels, with petrol currently priced at 137.51p per litre and diesel approaching £1.51 per litre. These figures reflect the ongoing volatility in the energy market, influenced by various geopolitical factors.

Market Influences

Brent Crude Oil prices have peaked at around $120 (£89), contributing to the rising costs of fuel. In response to these trends, the Chancellor has extended the 5p per litre cut in fuel duty for an additional five months, aiming to alleviate some of the financial pressure on motorists.

Expert Opinions

Rachel Reeves commented, “In November, I extended the 5p per litre cut in fuel duty for a further five months and ensured that fuel duty will not increase in line with inflation this year.” She emphasized the need for rapid de-escalation to maintain lower fuel prices.

However, concerns remain as gas prices have surged from 78p/therm to 161p/therm in just one week. Simon Cran-McGreehin noted, “Although gas prices are a long way off the record highs seen following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the rates of current increases is worrying.”

Petrol and diesel prices peaked across the UK in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, marking a significant turning point in the energy market. Experts have since called for further cuts in fuel duty to support motorists facing these rising costs.

Looking Ahead

Details remain unconfirmed regarding future trends in fuel prices, but observers are closely monitoring the situation as fluctuations continue to impact consumers and the broader economy.

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Before the recent escalation in military conflict, crude oil prices were relatively stable, hovering below the $100 mark. However, the situation dramatically changed following the joint strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, which began on February 28, 2026.

As a direct result of these actions, crude oil prices surged past $100 a barrel, marking a significant milestone as it was the first time oil reached this level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Brent crude saw a notable increase of over 20 percent, topping $114 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark prices rose by 28.7 percent, reaching $119.96 per barrel.

The surge in prices is attributed to the effective halt of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which threatens about one-fifth of the global oil supply. This disruption has led to heightened concerns among market participants and has prompted Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait to cut production in response to an accumulating backlog of barrels.

As prices soared, the immediate effects were felt by consumers, with the price of regular gasoline rising to $3.45 per gallon, approximately 47 cents more than the previous week. This increase reflects the broader implications of the conflict on everyday consumers and the energy market.

Experts are weighing in on the situation. Former President Donald Trump remarked that the short-term rise in oil prices is a small price to pay for the safety and peace of the U.S. and the world, suggesting that the geopolitical stakes are high. In contrast, an IRGC spokesperson warned that if the current situation continues, oil could exceed $200 per barrel.

Chris Wright, an energy analyst, indicated that the duration of the conflict could influence oil prices, stating, “In the worst case, this is a weeks, this is not a months thing.” Meanwhile, Saad al-Kaabi, a prominent figure in the energy sector, noted that many producers who have not yet declared force majeure are expected to do so in the coming days if the situation persists.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding how long these price increases will last and when the market might stabilize. The volatility in crude oil prices serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global events and their impact on energy markets.

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