Since the war began, the price of urea—a key fertiliser ingredient—has skyrocketed by 60% to 70%. This surge directly affects agricultural productivity in regions like sub-Saharan Africa, where countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya heavily depend on Middle Eastern nitrogenous fertilisers. Reports from S&P Global indicate that food supply chains are facing unprecedented challenges due to restrictions on fuel and fertiliser imports.

Africa is paradoxically well-positioned to produce food yet remains a major food importer. The continent relies on the Gulf states for approximately 35% of the world’s urea supply. As the Iran conflict continues, the specter of a global auction for fertilisers threatens to push prices beyond the reach of those who need it most.

Key impacts:

• The EU has announced grant aid of up to €50,000 for farmers affected by the conflict.
• The war has disrupted ammonia supplies, further complicating fertiliser production.
• Farmers are losing production daily—some experts warn it could take weeks or months to restart operations once disrupted.

Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International—the world’s largest fertiliser company—has raised alarms about the situation. He stated, “The most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm on what we are seeing right now – that there is a risk of a global auction on fertiliser that means it becomes unaffordable for those most vulnerable.” This sentiment underscores a pressing concern: without immediate action, many will face dire consequences.

The ramifications extend beyond mere economics; they touch upon human lives. Farmers express frustration over their dwindling returns. One remarked, “Farming only leads to financial losses. I’d rather work as a day labourer and earn 100 to 200 baht a day just to get by.” This stark reality highlights the urgency needed in addressing food security issues exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts.

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Recent reports indicate that Africa, despite its agricultural potential, remains heavily reliant on food imports. Approximately 35% of the world’s urea supply comes from Gulf states, and disruptions in ammonia supplies due to the war have severely affected fertiliser production. This situation has left nations like Ethiopia and Kenya particularly exposed to fluctuations in nitrogenous fertilisers.

Key statistics:

• The price of urea has surged by 60% to 70% since the onset of the Iran war.
• The EU announced grant aid of up to €50,000 for farmers impacted by these developments.
• Africa is a major food importer, despite being well-positioned to produce its own food.

Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International—the world’s largest fertiliser company—has raised alarms about a potential global auction for fertiliser. He stated, “The most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm on what we are seeing right now – that there is a risk of a global auction on fertiliser that means it becomes unaffordable for those most vulnerable.” His comments suggest a dire need for immediate action.

As farmers face increasing costs and diminishing returns, many are reconsidering their livelihoods. One individual lamented, “Farming only leads to financial losses. I’d rather work as a day labourer and earn 100 to 200 baht a day just to get by.” This sentiment reflects a broader crisis brewing among agricultural workers across sub-Saharan Africa.

The implications are staggering. If the situation continues unabated, we could witness widespread food insecurity affecting millions. S&P Global has reported significant challenges within food supply chains stemming from fuel and fertiliser restrictions due to the ongoing conflict.

In light of these developments, stakeholders must address this escalating crisis before it spirals further out of control. The response from governments and international organizations will be crucial as they navigate this complex landscape.

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